Finding a Value Bet
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Finding a Value Bet

A value bet is a bet worth taking, because the return outweighs the risk involved. Find out more how to spot these bets.

A Value Bet is a bet that is worth taking, because you have an edge or because there are good reasons to support that risk.

Pros
  • You get the edge. Not the house
  • It can help you build a VIP progress
  • In general there is a lower risk involved
Cons
  • If the game is cancelled for any reason you made a deposit for no reason
  • You have to make sure you know what you're doing or else you can lose more than you planned to risk

Finding a value bet is not necessarily a difficult task. However it does require some concentration. In addition, being in a good mood can help. It really does. An open mind is a key for success.

A value bet is not necessarily a bet where you risk $10 to win $10,000. There is no value in trying to multiply your stake by 1000x because it’s almost certainly going to fail. You can of course take a shot in the dark but just know it has no value.

The real value lies in the analysis of the risk against the reward. The million dollar question you should ask yourself is as follows: Is it worth taking the risk?

An Example of Finding a Value Bet

Today at the time of writing is the 21st of December 2020. Tonight there is a NCAA Basketball game between the Baylor Bears and the Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions. According to the oddsmakers there is a clear favorite here. You can see the odds between the 2 teams here.

If you look at the money line odds between the 2 teams you can see that supposedly no one is offering it.

Finding a Value Bet from an NCAA Basketball Match
No Money Line Odds are offered between Baylor and APB

You can also check top bookmakers as well and see what they offer on this match. Right now, William Hill for example is having Baylor as a favorite -42 points. A spread of 42 points is huge. This is not even David and Goliath. This is just so much more than that. By all means when a team is favorite by 42 points you can expect it to “automatically” win the match!

William Hill is not offering money line odds but it is showing the spread.
William Hill is having Baylor as a favorite to win by a spread of 42 points!

Note: Not getting into conspiracy theories of getting some games rigged. However rigging games could happen in real life. Bribing referees did occur in the history of the world. Thus, you should never bet too much on a value bet. An under the radar bet is better than blowing $50,000 in one shot. Also, most complaints about games being rigged are usually not taking place in games like the one discussed here.

Compare the odds with other providers

A rule of thumb is to never rely on one single bookmaker. If we take the example above you can see a surprise. Stake does offer money line on this match. However look what they offer:

Stake is not offering a value bet on this match.
Stake is offering 1 XRP for every 1000 XRP bet

You can basically bet with Stake $1000. Your winnings will be only $1. Effectively these are odds of 1.001. These are extremely poor odds. Now if Stake is your only option you can take this bet. We did explain here that such bets can help you gain more VIP % in Stake for example. However this is not a value bet.

Let us show you what a value bet looks like:

SportsBet.io is offering a value bet here.
SportsBet.io is offering full 1.01 odds on a favorite team with -42 spread

As you can see SportsBet.io is offering Baylor as a favorite for 1.01. That means for every $1000 you risk you will win $10 in return. The attempt to place the bet and had gone through successfully and instantly:

SportsBet.io accepting a value bet without any hassles
SportsBet.io accepted the bet instantly without any troubles

In terms of fees SportsBet.io does not charge any withdrawal fees. So the profit is the net profit here because without fees the winnings are 100% yours.

Conclusion

A value bet is not necessarily a bet on which NFL team will win the Super Bowl. In fact, if you have no idea who is going to be the winner then just don’t bet it. Yes, the event might be huge and big, but enjoy watching it without betting on it!

If you wish to bet then find a value bet. A value bet is a bet that can ensure you win in the long term. By having the edge you are doing what the house is doing: winning money.

After finding a value bet it’s important to ensure the site that is offering the bet is legit. It’s important to check the site is processing withdrawals without troubles. It’s also important to know the site is charging as less fees as possible (0 is the ideal just like in this case).

In the example above both Stake.com and SportsBet.io in our view meet these criteria.

As mentioned, this specific match takes place tonight. We don’t have the final results for this one, but based on all the indicators we expect this to be an easy one. Good luck with your own bets!

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