Rosa vs Dumont Prediction

The UFC is back to Las Vegas and on the 22nd of April 2023 (UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes), Karol Rosa is going to fight Norma Dumont. Read this short piece to see our full analysis as well as our Rosa vs Dumont prediction.

Both fighters are from Brazil. Rosa has a 16-4 record, whilst Dumont has a 8-2 record. At the time of posting this (17-APR-2023), the bookmakers have 1.90 odds on each one of them to win (i.e. if you risk $100 on any of them you get back $90 – hence the juice/vig is 10%).

What do we know about Karol Rosa?

Firstly, if you check Karol Rosa’s stats, you can see all of her recent fights ended with a decision. Her last fight against Lina Lansberg ended with a majority decision. However, please note Rosa was a 1.29 favorite to win against Lansberg. You can watch her last fight against Lansberg online (we cannot disclose the links for obvious reasons, but you can simply google search “Rosa Lansberg Highlights” and find some links yourself).

In the last fight she had against Lansberg, she wasn’t too convincing. In fact, her grappling wasn’t convincing at all. Considering she is 10lbs heavier than Lansberg – she had lots of difficulties controlling Lansberg throughout the fight. Yes, she did win, and she righfully so, but in the UFC/MMA it’s best to take the most recent fight as some form of understanding in order to predict what could happen next.

What do we know about Norma Dumont?

Two years ago, Dumont had a fight against Megan Anderson. You can watch the fight on Youtube. Anderson, who back then was taller and stronger than Dumont managed to knock out Dumont. Dumont was playing the grappling game against Anderson, but she didn’t have enough skills. Still, Dumont was a 4 to 1 underdog in this fight, so the oddsmakers were expecting her to lose.

Fast forward two years, today we see a completely new person in the UFC. Dumont is not only a good grappler but she completely changed her strategy. According to the official stats, her signifcant strikes defense is 69%, whilst Rosa has it set on 49%. She does land less signficant strikes than Rosa (3 against 6), and this should lead us to the prediction itself.

Rosa vs Dumont Prediction: Who do we think is going to win?

As we mentioned in our Strategies page, our goal here was to find a value bet. In our opinion, the bookmakers have set them both with equal odds, simply because Rosa has an impressive record: she fought 20 times. A 16-4 record is not a record to be taken lightly.

Nonetheless, Rosa is facing a much more skilled opponent, in grappling, striking and simply Dumont in our view is two times better than Rosa. If these two fighters had most of their fights reaching a decision, we expect something faster here, a quick finish, especially considering Rosa’s defense is so poor.

We expect Dumont to beat Rosa, and to do so within the distance (i.e. not via decision), and Rosa’s poor defense is going to pay lots of dividends to Dumont, she should be a clear favorite here, and we do expect the odds to slightly change towards the fight, and set Dumont as a favorite to win here.

Good luck!

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